For over 30 years, Mike Campbell has been a prolific, independent and sensible voice on the economy, investing, finances, government policy and current events; a popular and well-respected commentator on radio, television and in print media.
Mike’s aim has always been to inform and empower Canadians to protect and grow their capital. While his conferences and online resources play a big part, he’s best known for sharing financial wisdom and investment opportunities by featuring an array of independent guests on his show, MoneyTalks. And he adds a lot of spice with The Goofy Awards, Shocking Stat of the Week and pointy, opening monologues (some say rants…).
Integrated Wealth Management has been a proud content contributor to MoneyTalks since 2013. We’re excited to present Mike Campbell as a guest on our Big Picture Podcast. President, Andrew Ruhland, interviewed Mike Campbell to get an unscripted take on the markets, politics and our media landscape. Plus, listeners will get to know the man behind the mic on a more personal level – how he got started in the financial world and media, his passion behind Special Olympics, what makes him tick and more.
(Podcast held on June 18th, 2024)
Full Transcript
Andrew 0:08
Hello, this is Andrew Ruhland here from integrated Wealth Management in Calgary and welcome to the IWM. Big Picture podcast. How does that look Sandor? You’re looking good. Awesome. So, are we live? We are actually live. Okay, how’s that for a rough start, Mike?
Mike Campbell 0:29
I know exactly what it’s like I was one of the first broadcasters of remote. You know, it’s hard. It’s like the old really old days, but it did no remote broadcast, I was in the first one down from the trading convention center with the non launch of the debt clock. And they didn’t know how to frame it. So I was standing on a chair that was on a table. And the echo I echoed to myself, I was a delay. So I would say it and I’d hear it back five seconds later. So yeah, I remember those pleasurable days, so I’m well versed with it. Wow.
Andrew 1:03
So welcome, everybody and welcome, Mike. This is one of those really interesting, and challenging and thrilling situations for me, because you may or may not even know this, Mike, I listened to you back in the early 90s, in Edmonton, when I was living there, and listening to you on CHED 630. And I thought, holy mackerel, here’s somebody who’s actually speaking my language, and listened to you for years and years, or for three years, probably, before I actually got into the financial business. So I actually credit you with being kind of the inspiration for getting into the financial business. And honestly, I’ve done everything I can to actually model a lot of how you approach things, which is to be comfortable with saying unpopular things, not for the sake of gaining attention, but for the sake of trying to tell the truth, even if it’s difficult for people to hear. So anyways,
Mike Campbell 2:05
First of all, I appreciate that very much. And that is the challenge is that we it’s even stronger now where the government narrative is so dominant. And we saw that and I’m not going to get into you know, COVID nonstop. But the point of that relates to this is, you know, we had many people who suffered, because they went against the government narrative. I’m talking professionals, I’m talking epidemiologists, and, and now that sort of unraveled, a lot of the government story is unraveled. And, again, that’s unpopular to say on either side. If I say that now, you know, it was not based on science, I thought it was one of the most anti science environments the most I’ve ever witnessed in my life. Because one, science is about questioning, not about a narrative. Well, they prevented questions clearly they did in the media, mainstream media. We know it was heavily influenced forget, I’m put on social media by the FBI in the States. I mean, there was clear censorship, that so to point that out, which I did immediately, but more of a concern is you get progress by asking questions. And if it’s against the narrative, great, let the narrative, you know, defend itself. So people, can I still my approach is give people the facts and let them decide. They don’t I don’t expect anyone to assume my opinion. But I really do believe they need to hear the facts. And that is, absolutely seems to be the opposite of what we encounter, whether it’s a government statement, you go, Well, wait a second, there’s another side to that story, or wait a second, what are the implications? And so yeah, I think it’s even more difficult now than it was 20 or 30 years ago.
Andrew 3:38
I heard one commentator say, you know, the truth doesn’t need to be defended, it can take care of itself. And so but the way that we get to that truth is okay, let’s talk about things. And yeah, let’s have reasonable conversations that are not fueled by invective or ideology. And let’s just try and kind of figure out things.
Mike Campbell 3:57
And what’s interesting, I welcome questions, and for two reasons. One is, maybe I’ve done a lot of research on that, and I can help out, but somebody may point out something I haven’t considered. Well, the goal is to get it right. Not to be right. And go, yeah, well, no, but I’m very worried. And again, the danger nowadays is that there has been a movement toward increasing censorship, let’s say, we know the cancel culture. And again, we don’t have to go into that people have a sense of what that is. That there are opinions that are acceptable, and, and again, unfortunately, COVID became such a poster child, it was hard to ignore that, you know, that people were vilified for asking questions of the narrative. And as I say, some of that narrative has absolutely unraveled now. But that’s uncomfortable for people who put faith in the narrative to so you’ve got both sides. And I think people have to first decide you do they want to be fed pabulum, you know, and but we’re in such a dangerous time now. To miss these major trends is very costly. And I think one of my big themes, Andrew, is that right through that period, I used to drive me nuts. For example, Stan COVID, just for a second, when we were all in this together, I’m thinking that is utter horse manure. I’m fortunate enough to have a house in Victoria, and a vacation property. And I’m sort of deciding on which one am I going to stay in, you know, that is not the same as somebody who’s in the inner city, who’s got one or two children who are not allowed on playgrounds, who aren’t worried about their paychecks, who are worried about, you know, their schools are closed, different parts of the country, of course, for longer periods. But my point is, they were not in the same position as me. And neither was any politician. Not one politician sat there and thought, gee, I wonder if I’ll get a paycheck. Heck, they got three raises during the pandemic, I found that insulting and insensitive to the people who are truly struggling. And we still are, though, you know, and I guess, people, somebody’s got to defend those people, or at least bring them to the to the attention because it’s not government.
Andrew 6:04
Exactly. But shifting gears, what do you make of the media landscape today? Broadly speaking, we were talking before we went live. Big Picture podcast. So you start big picture?
Mike Campbell 6:52
The challenge is that we’re in a transition like we are in so many other industries, so many other parts, you know, parts of society. And we shouldn’t underestimate the degree to which the mainstream media and again, I’m not knocking anybody, but they didn’t anticipate these changes. And I thought they were obvious. And by the way, I broadcast about that. And I did actually a talk in front of broadcasters about that. I’m not, I’m not looking back with hindsight. I mean, and that’s the challenge that they have. I mean, how many of us are listening to podcasts now as opposed to radio? Or it could be television, look at the popularity of YouTube taking some of that market share their newspapers, of course, they’re having a tremendous problem. But it’s interesting, it’s twofold. But the new technologies have facilitated when they say, well, Canadians won’t pay for media. Well, they do on Substack. You know, what they do on investment newsletters? I’m sure you subscribe to a few are willing to put out the money. I’m sure we’ve got people listening today said I’ve got a couple of favorites. You know, I’m a big supporter of Blacklocks reporter who looks at the business of Ottawa though and I did something on Moneytalks not long ago with them. And again, I don’t have any problem, ponying up for them, they’ve made this whole business about people willing to pay. So the increased competition because of the quality of work is huge. But that creates sort of a double standard or a double whammy pardon me. When you let’s say you had a restaurant, you’re sort of short on cash, chances are you may reduce the service, the quality of the food, etc. Well, it’s very difficult. There’s some very good people working in the mainstream media. Luckily, I get to talk with some of them who very good. But the size of the news newsrooms aren’t there any longer, you know, they know this backup support, isn’t there any longer. And so it’s a very competitive environment that the mainstream media isn’t going to win, just like so many others, you know, I mean, come on, how many people got a transistor radio right now? How many people are using their Walkman any longer, you know, things 10 tend to come and go. And the real key is for anybody, whatever business you’re in right now is anticipate what changes and then adapt now, don’t wait. Our governments are pathetic at that. There’s massive changes. And I mean, I can go on and on because they’ve been so poor at anticipating at the federal level, you know, gee, we brought in 2 million people in 20 months, you think they might need housing? You know, it’s all after the fact reactions. And it’s frustrating. I know, for some people, certainly, for those who can’t afford their, you know, rent payments in Toronto. I mean, I understand that, but I’m just pointing out that the media is caught in this massive technological change. They’ve been slow to respond. And so one quick story. I think I was the first person to lecture on the internet at the University of British Columbia in 1995. Oh, and I said, by the way, at that time, I said, I have no idea how this thing works, but I don’t know how my fax machine works either. I don’t even know how my telephone works, but I know how to use it. And that was my message when talking was, it’s going to be a broadcast mechanism.
Andrew 10:06
I can remember hearing that you were broadcasting Money talks, but you were doing it remotely. And during certain seasons, you were doing it from your place in West Van and from other places, or other times of year. Maybe we’re down in Palm Springs or over in Maui or wherever. But you have this little briefcase that was your internet, your internet case, and you were able to be in full communication with the engineer Bay, you know, back at CKNW. And nobody knew where you were. Nobody cared.
Mike Campbell 10:38
They shouldn’t. I mean, it’s the quality of the information, yet. So it’s a huge challenge for the mainstream media, I don’t think they’re going to win out. Because again, you have to foresight, I remember having a meeting, I mentioned that 1995. With the internet, because within a few years of that, I talked to a major group of broadcasters, talked individually to the company I was working with, and saying, you’ve got all the advantages in the world right now. This is yours. Because the biggest challenge when you first started in the internet, and let’s say you put up a website, or whatever was get driving traffic to it. Well, what big advantage did the local news have, they could have driven traffic to their own website in an aggressive way, and had a huge leg up on the competition? They just didn’t, I was pointing out the number of resources they had at their disposal, you know, because they had full functioning newsrooms. I said, well, why don’t you repackage that information? No one can compete you with you. No one’s going to start up a website and say, I’m hiring 38 people today? No. So they didn’t, they didn’t see the changes coming. And that’s what’s led us to this position where the Canadian taxpayer got the media bailout fund for newspapers, basically. And magazines. First, I think it was, but bottom line is because they didn’t see the changes coming.
Andrew 11:56
And now we have a crush for a long time, the mainstream media has had a left leaning bias centrist, at best in most cases. I mean, there are exceptions, right. But now you have this combination of ideology and financial interests that are aligned against I’ll say, more rational, more fiscally responsible, more personal freedom oriented, editorial, editorials, and even takes on the news. So it’s really hard to have that kind of trust. One of my closest friends is Mike also. And I, we chat almost every week. And one of the things that kind of transitioned from the COVID era was that I said, you know, it used to be that I was kind of skeptical of what I would see on the on the mainstream news. And I used to watch global news. That was my preferred national news source on the TV. And I said, I used to kind of doubt what they said, and then I started to understand that, okay, I’m gonna go look for alternative sources, because this doesn’t smell right. And I think there’s stuff that’s missing. And what I ended up learning, of course, is that in a lot of cases, they were lying. And then it’s progressed to the point where they’re actually telling us the exact opposite was true, and they’re gaslighting us.
Mike Campbell 13:26
Keep in mind that government is also gaslighting, especially again, at the federal level. Now, we have people listening in here from Alberta from BC, you know, from other parts of Canada. So their experience of their own provincial government is different. You know, there’s a huge difference between British Columbia and David Eby and the NDP, and the government, the provincial government, Danielle Smith in Alberta, and people can have their debates. I think one of my challenges is that, where, I’ve always tried to explain to people that politics is for adolescents, and economics and finances for grownups. And the grown up thing is this, you’ve got a mortgage. And we know we’ve got millions of Canadians with their mortgages going to be renewed in 2025/26. We know again, another warning from the Bank of Canada, I think it was today, coming out, just talking about the drag on the economy, because I’m not going to have that same amount of money to spend, because it’s going to my mortgage, I don’t think we’re gonna have a default problem. But what’s gonna go to the mortgage? And I’m saying it doesn’t matter. Nobody at the bank said, who did you vote for? You know, you’re NDP, or you’re liberal or you’re conservative? Oh, we’re changing your mortgage payments. It’s not that’s why I call it reality. That’s the grown up part of this. And you know, if politicians too often think they can change the laws of economics, and they can’t, and we have a history of the fallout of unintended consequences from that. And people who mean people who see the world through a political lens, are dangerous. There. missing that point, because we have we can debate to what degree our record deficit or debts, our record interest payments are going to impact things. The fact that they’re going to impact shouldn’t be up for grabs, you know, period that should be dealt with head on in Canada, my concern like the Bank of Canada, and I could give you a long list of economists, by the way, University of Calgary have several good ones, Jack, and Trevor Tombe. Yeah, both very, very good, though, and add to the debate, you know, add to the our public understanding. But, again, we have to first appreciate the problems and you can’t just pay for them over there with rhetoric. So I am concerned as they are and most economists, that we have gross domestic product, which is basically the economy, and you measure it on a per person basis, you know, of course, it was gonna go up if you have 2 million people, but you’re actually not better off, it’s how much are we producing per person? Well, our GDP per capita is down 13 of 15 quarters down seven consecutive quarters. So again, for people to understand that let’s say you took on a lot of debt, and your solution is to earn less money. No, you know, your solution is not not to work. Of course, I mean, we know this by common sense. That’s absurd. So what worries me is they don’t acknowledge that as the problem. The current federal Liberal government doesn’t acknowledge and the NDP, they don’t acknowledge it either. I suspect, neither of those leaders understand it. But you can’t have the Bank of Canada having unprecedented news conference about a month ago, where Carolyn Rogers, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada says if I had an emergency glass, I’d break it and say we got an emergency here. And we’re ignoring that you mentioned Trevor Tombe, he’s talked about that in good writing, you know, Jackman’s talks about that, and many, many others, because it’s a fundamental, your productivity per capita, is going to determine your future standard of living. And then the other side of that, is that we’ve seen our capital investment if you adjusted for inflation. Since 2015, it’s actually down nearly 14%. That is not the recipe for prosperity, regardless of who you vote for, you know, we know you need if you want to have jobs, well, it doesn’t matter where you are in the political spectrum, you need investment. You know, it doesn’t come out of thin air. So you need someone to invest in create a new retail outlet, or a new technology, you know, software company, whatever it is unique capital investment, ours is declining. And I’ll give you one more stat on that. I’m laughing because I’m the stat guy, I can make someone’s eyes roll over in a second, I can put them to sleep. But this is an important stat, you got a 70 to 73 cent dollar, it impacts every one of us in some way. Because we buy American imports, a lot of inputs for manufacturing comes from the States, they got more expensive. I think most of us appreciate if you travel to the States, it’s expensive now because of the dollar. Well, how could we possibly compete? They’re spending $28,000 per worker in the States, we’re spending 15000. 28,000 to 15,000. We can be geniuses up here. Yeah, you cannot compete over time with those numbers. And we’re not alone. He’s addressing these issues.
Andrew 18:27
So the 28 to 15. Now, are you talking about investing in, in training? Are you talking about investing in productivity gains?
Mike Campbell 18:36
It would be all of that what they do is they take the overall capital investment and divide it, you know, you’re training, you’ve got intellectual property as an example, you know, property. And then of course, just the machine I’m using, is it more productive, but we just can’t compete when we’re, we’re just coming on to half as little you know, I mean, 15,000 compared to 28,000. And over time, these things have been dropping over time. And Canada, Canadians, this is the part going back to what I said about we’re insensitive to how some Canadians are doing. I may be okay. I know full well, there’s a huge growing number of Canadians are not okay. They continue to be ignored. Well, this is where it feeds out. If you think of any bad policy, who’s the worst? The US can’t come up with a policy that impacts Bill Gates in an immediate way. You know, there’s no such thing. Well, that’s just of course, the extreme. But my point is bad policy infects impacts people at the lower end of the income scale. And now we’re seeing it expand. And that’s there’s a lot of things that come out of that, including social upheaval.
Andrew 19:50
Exactly. Now, before I go any further I have a highlight here. I have some dear clients out in Sook who wanted me to make sure that I passed along their gratitude and mine as well, frankly, for all the years that you’ve been actually willing to say these difficult things and provide this this long term guidance, there’s so many more things that I could say, but I’d had to get that in there.
Mike Campbell 20:14
I’m very clear what my goal is. There is nothing in it for me, other than hopefully to add some value for individuals. And that sounds, you know, pretty self serving. I can get that it is. You know, any money I’ve ever made from doing this I have donated, Special Olympics and others my money. So there’s no money, monetary reward for me. Yeah, but here’s the point. I’m bringing that up only to juxtapose it with politicians, where many, most all, I don’t know, first loyalty is to their party. And we see that, and I can give you examples across the political spectrum, and it wouldn’t be comfortable. Why? Because we’ll have people listening today who support various political parties. They’ll agree with me if I point what they don’t support and won’t like it when I point out to one, but that I think that’s one of the key problems is their loyalty is not to the public, it’s to themselves to the party, certainly not to integrity on many occasions in the end of supporting their partisanship. And that’s where I think you get the growing cynicism we’re experiencing in the country today.
Andrew 21:24
And unfortunately, politics has always been a team sport, right. And it has to be when it comes to consensus and various forms of democracy or constitutional republics, or, you know, the Westminster parliamentary system like we have here. The the great challenge, of course, is that that whole team concept plays right into our human nature of being tribal. Right? Yes. And I mean, because tribalism is how we survived. You know, back when the saber toothed tigers came chasing us, the only way that some of us survived, was to actually think as a team, right, and to help each other out.
Mike Campbell 22:03
That’s a huge point, though. Yeah, we retreat to tribalism, for a variety of psychological reasons. But literally genetic, you know, let’s go back to those things. The challenge with that now, though, is that there’s a bigger game out there, and it’s not acknowledged. And this is one as you know, it’s a prime theme of mine on Moneytalks, which is what we’re watching is the declining confidence in government, and the ramifications consequences for that we’re already seeing, by the way, we’re already seeing many of them, it’s going to get worse. And so when people look at their little partisan favorites, you know, their political favorites, they’re not seeing the bigger picture. The politicians don’t have a big picture. I don’t even think they have a broad scale model. We’re headed in a specific direction. And if you evaluate any kind of statement by a politician or politician or policy, ask yourself, do you think that’ll increase people’s confidence? Look at the bigger picture. Will people’s confidence go up with that? We’re seeing it in other countries to seeing it reflected. It’s a financial issue. Why? Because confidence is everything about finance. I mean, I continually think counter, it’s just funny, when somebody hands me a paper bill, you know, just pick, what the heck am I taking that for? And this one’s got a 50 on it. And this one’s got a 20. And I think it’s different. No, it’s all about the confidence I have and what we can purchase with it in the end. Big stuff, big stuff in the offing here, too.
Andrew 23:37
So shifting gears a little bit here, I was gonna ask you, what keeps you up at night? But I think you just explained that. Right? It’s the direction of the government, the trajectory that we’re on, from a debt to GDP basis, declining confidence in government, what we might also describe as declining confidence in our institutions. Right. So media is obviously not government at least. Well, it is still kind of a lot closer now.
Mike Campbell 24:19
But think of the confidence in universities has got to be declining after you watch the anti Semitism rampant the response of those three presidents MIT, Penn State and University of Pennsylvania and Harvard. Nobody sat there and watched signs there. I’m more confident in these people. Yeah, defund the police. You know, the list is a long one. This isn’t casual. And to not understand that this is an anti establishment trend is why the vast majority didn’t understand that Brexit would go through them on Monday, Cox, we were crystal clear that Brexit would go through, not because I’ve got any kind of insight it’s because I understood that anti establishment was going to dominate. Donald Trump. On the election you might recall in October of 220, when literally every media outlet said he can’t get elected, when he talks that it was he was totally just because I understand that it’s anti establishment. It’s changing our lives and changing our world. And we’re not done yet. I mean, Canadians don’t want to be too insular. I mean, you’ve got to look out and see that Geert Wilders was elected in the Netherlands as a direct response of their farmers protests similar to our truckers here? They formed a party and the guy won. What about Giorgia Meloni? In Italy? She won. Yeah, it’ll be interesting to see what happens in the UK. They don’t have to necessarily win. But you see these big inroads like Marie LePen? In France? Yes, you know, the list just keeps going on and to deny this as the trend. And it worries me that our politicians don’t even know that’s out there. Sorry, if you allow just one more thing on that, because I can go on and on. But it’s important to note that our leaders got not a single major trend, correct. Not one of them saw Brexit coming, not one of them saw Trump coming. But not one of them saw the impact of the sovereign debt crisis, they didn’t sit there and go, hey, guess what, you know, we’re gonna have a real problem. I mean, my happiest recommendation ever on Moneytalks, was to tell people to lock in about 800 times as I’ve got a tendency to do their mortgages, locking, go ahead and borrow at a locked in rate, but lock in your mortgage lock in your borrowing, because the rise is going to be abrupt. And again, it’s the proofs in the pudding.
Andrew 26:45
It’s funny, because we took that advice, and we brought that forward to our clients. And I have been ranting about that for years. And even more recently, when people are like, Yeah, but the three year rate looks really attractive. And I said, this is the mega trend. It’s, you know, mortgages are funded in the bond market. And the interest rates that are demanded in the bond market are based on confidence in government. So how confident are you that governments are going to pull back on their spending and somehow immediately, you know, find religion and get fiscally responsible? And they’re like, Oh, I understand. So, you know, you’re gonna feel some shorter term pain.
Mike Campbell 27:22
I think you’re talking also, and I know you do this primarily at Integrated Wealth, is risk management. So if someone said, well, would you buy a government bond that matures next Monday? Well, yeah, I would, you know, I mean, I’m not worried things are going down by Monday, you know, so it’s your timeframe. And you have to appreciate the farther out your timeframe. When you go into government bonds, the more risk you’re taking on, and that’d be my first thing, I’m not telling anyone what to do. But please appreciate the environment that the longer out you go, the more risk you’re taking. Now, like in any risky bet, like flipping a coin, you may be right in the end. But were you prepared for the fallout? Because think of the people? I mean, we nearly brought the financial system down, because interest rates rose that quickly. You know, in hindsight, oh, that was a great call. But I couldn’t guarantee that I just knew the risk had gotten out of control, you know, 5000 year low and interest rates, what do you think you were missing out on?
Andrew 28:20
And it’s funny, because you’ve never specifically tied it to this. But the the melt up actually was the spike up and the overnight rate happened on your birthday in 2004. And the 5000 year low in interest rates happened on my birthday, August 4, the following August. I’ve always had a thing for dates. And, you know, just a little bit on the spectrum, I guess, or maybe, whatever.
Mike Campbell 28:54
Just hold on for a sec, because your points well taken. What happens is people can’t imagine the movements we’ve had, they literally, there’s until you see it in the markets. I was. I’m old. I was there, October 19 1987. And the market crash, you know, the movement of the market was beyond anyone’s imagination. And then once it happens, that’s our new parameters. Those are our new boundaries. The market could do X because it did it before. So with the interest rates, I call that date, September 16 2019. I call it the most important date of probably my lifetime, because it showed me what could happen. And just to bring people up to speed, you want to know how fast interest rates can rise 500% overnight in four hours, actually, why? And this is what Silicon Valley Bank just dealt with. This is what the UK pension fund. This is what Japan’s worried about. There were no buyers. You know, someone said hey, can you buy my bond? I need the money. Well you’re only paying me 1%. And I can get 3% somewhere else. Oh, so I’ve got a discount that to make up, you know, I’ve got to drop my price until the yield gets equal. Well, there were massive losses. I mean, this is literally why Silicon Valley Bank went under, they needed money. Well, their liquidation created such huge losses, because their money was sitting in these T bills in the States paying 1%, or whatever it is. Yeah, I mean, brutal. But my only point bringing it up, it’s my only point, it’s important. That’s how fast things move. And to not factor that into your decision making and your evaluation of the risk you’re taking. And that brings me back to someone can say I want a 10 year bond. And I can say, I just think you’re too high. For me, that’s too rich. For me, I think so much can happen over 10 years that will devalue the price of that bond, I’m not willing to take that risk. So I stay short term on that stuff. Because I think even if it has a problem, and I’m maturing in 18 months, well, I’ll get my money back in 18, even if the price is dropped, you know, in between, but I think that’s really important for people to understand the length of the bond increases your risk, the side what risk you want to take. I’m personally on the short term. I don’t mind government bonds. I like of them on the short term, and quality corporate I like on the shorter term, you know, so yeah, that’s, that’s why I think that that date was so important, because it shows what happens when shit hits the fan. Or I could just show you 150 countries right now in the world. People don’t follow what happens in Sri Lanka. So they don’t know what’s happened to their bond market, or Turkey. You know, let’s bring it closer to home. So it’s an important part and aspect for people going forward to understand.
Andrew 31:50
So we’ve got more questions here than I had initially anticipated. But maybe we’ll start out with one that is actually not specifically about investing, but relates to somebody that was very, very important in my formation of understanding of investing. It’s Jim Dines who I came to know between or through Moneytalks. And question is, what is your favorite Jim Dines story?
Mike Campbell 32:17
That he came to Vancouver. God bless him. Let me say that he was very kind. I always used to laugh. He’s my favorite reporter referring to me. I’m actually not a reporter. But lovely guy. Okay, so he comes to Vancouver. And this is going back a number of years. I’m sorry, I can’t even think like 20 years ago. And Jim arrives, and you had to call him Mr. Dines? I didn’t but, you know, the people who work with me it was always Mr. Dines. And he came with this is true. A bevy of beauties, a bevy, an entourage, the dolly girls, yes. And he would come. Yeah, he would hire from a local modeling agency. He understood the showmanship of high quality research to let’s remember that he totally understood the showmanship of it, and the entertainment value. And so he arrives in Vancouver, it’s on Robson Square, he arrives at Robson Square. And nobody knows I didn’t know. And the music starts he chooses his own entrance music. And in walks these three girls on each side, these three gorgeous women walking in parading him to the front of the room. Yeah. And how do you not get a big ovation for that? Exactly. But his understanding of the markets, I loved his understanding of the importance of psychology. And on a serious note, I listened to the response to the capital gains increase, without any suggestion that it impacts investors. Psychology is a huge mistake. It’s an amateur mistake. Yeah, whether you like it or not, you at least have to factor in these things. And so someone can factor and say it’s worth it. I support it, you know, but you can’t just ignore it. And Jim was the pioneer. He wrote an excellent book called Mass Psychology as relevant today as it ever was. But yes, he was a total wonderful character to deal with.
Andrew 34:16
Yeah. Victor Adair told me a couple of stories about when he used to go down to the Gold Show in San Francisco and, and things like that. But yeah, very, very interesting character. And honestly, that whole expression, it’s about getting it right, not being right. That that largely comes back to him because it’s about, you know, subjugating the ego to the goal, right.
Mike Campbell 34:41
What do you also do that I remember him, it’s very effective. He would show up, put a chart of something up, and then no analysis, is it going up? Or is it going down? He would say, and it was so obvious, you forget your questions. Here’s the chart of the Dow Jones or here’s the chart of gold. Here’s a chart of oil and it’s See the trend and you go, you ask the audience? Is it going up? Is it going down? And I have thought that was very effective and valuable.
Andrew 35:08
Absolutely. So maybe we’ll shift over to some investing related questions. You’ve touched on on a little bit of it. Question here is how they feel about the US Dollar versus Canadian dollar. Should I be holding more US dollars? Obviously, you know, no specific situations. But you guys, you talked about the US dollar being kind of a safe haven asset and, you know, continuing to overweight there. What, starting 10 or 15 years ago or longer?
Mike Campbell 35:35
Yeah. I mean, that was a good understanding. I don’t even call it like a call. I call it an understanding of the system. And yes, I was, my recommendation has been consistent on weakness in the US dollar or strength in the Canadian dollar. I convert to US dollars, part of that is an understanding of what’s going on in Canada, especially in the last decade. But so I buy US dollars. But I want to give the caveat, we’re in a very important to understand where, and again, this isn’t something I made up yesterday morning, I made it up about three years ago, I said, we’re in a monetary crisis, we are going to change the monetary system, the US dollar. Now this is going to my friend Martin Armstrong’s Socrates model, taking the timing from that is in 2028, I plan to not be in my US dollars by 2028. I plan to be pacing out of them for hard assets. And again, if someone listens to Moneytalks to understand the biggest challenge I see us having all of us is defending the purchasing power of our currency. We all understand it doesn’t buy as much as it used to. But this is one of those trends. Andrew, that’s so heavy in stone, I was just doing a little critique of the the capital gains exemption. And I have problems with the finance minister calling it fair. I said, is it fair that if I make a $10,000 investment 1970, it’s got to be worth $80,000. Today, to have the same purchasing power, I have no gain until it gets over 80,000. We can go shorter timeframe, you can look at 2010 and make a $10,000 investment. I have no gain till it’s well over $13,000. And so again, that doesn’t change that debate. But don’t talk to me about fair because it’s all about purchasing power. So in other words, again, wasn’t very clear there. It takes $79,000 Plus today to buy what $10,000 did in 1970. It takes for a dollar today buys what 54 cents bought in the year 2000. Yeah, like we’ve all experienced this constant erosion. Now, some people will call that inflation I say no, I don’t believe that’s the story. The story is, the quality of the currency is down. You can’t just you know, I look at these announcements, the prime minister said we’re going to kick in eight and a half million dollars for study and democracy or something, I’m going well, no, you’re not, you’re not really mean. It’s just fake money and look at the state. So here’s another 12 billion here and 10 billion here and all I mean, other countries are doing it. I’m just saying that devalues the purchasing power. And the challenge for individuals over time is how do you make sure so you do all the savings and proper things? What’s it going to buy? I think it was Alan Greenspan actually had a great comment on that. And they’re, they’re talking about social security in the States. And he said that they said, well, is Social Security going to be there for me when I retire? He said yes. And the bad news is you’ll buy a cup of coffee with it. You know, it’s just not going to purchase anything. Yeah. And that’s the challenge that all of us face. So when I look at currencies, I’m okay with the US dollar, relatively speaking, maintaining the purchasing power, but I think you’re going to be a lot better off in stuff. So I always invite people to make make their own choices. But here’s, here’s the question I have. Over here, I’ve got a pile of paper dollars. And over here I have, let’s say that piles were 10,000. And over here, I have $10,000 worth of oil, wheat, gold. Which one do you think is going to be better in five to 10 years? It’s very tough to say you think the paper is going to be? I mean, there’s literally nothing historically that would suggest that I mean, when you consider that another one of those sort of shocking revelations, not a single paper currency in the history of the world has ever survived. Because things were performing. We’re just talking the timing. So US dollar might timing is be careful by 2028.
Andrew 39:56
So a couple of questions to try and kind of combine in terms of currency debasement where to invest in park for retirement, and should I be investing in Canada given the significant productivity issues we have, and what appears to be a recession emerging in Canada, and all without putting words in your mouth? My answer to that is, again, it’s in real stuff. Like three years ago, at a little over three years ago, at the Outlook Conference. You and Vic and others confirmed Hey, we’re in the beginning of a commodity super-cycle. And within six weeks, we had launched actually a sleeve kind of a strategy within broader portfolios. And as of the end of May, it’s up 17% compound return, with the same volatility as half TSX and half S&P 500 benchmark. And that’s not easy considering how well the S&P has done. But it’s in stuff that people actually need. Right. So real assets, assets that are useful. Right. And, and in things that are going to be all say, necessary down the road. And sorry, that’s kind of my answer. And I’ll let you add in.
Mike Campbell 41:07
I think the first thing again, we come back, we’re managing risk. And I think your first job job is to survive. And that don’t take that casually. Yeah, we could have would you really be shocked if there was a new nuclear strike in the world today? I mean, that whether it doesn’t matter if it’s by mistake, or by design, you know, I think we’re we’re undervaluing the geopolitical risk when it comes to assessing our portfolios. I mean, the intense risk between the West and Russia, obviously, what’s going on in Gaza, Chinese threats against Taiwan. So, like, if someone said to me, you know, Mike, we’re gonna get you through this period, and you’re gonna be okay. Maybe you could have made more money or you know, but you’re going to be okay, I’d say I’ll take that. Thanks. That’s how risky this environment is. Because now you compare that to record amounts of debt in the world record amounts of sovereign debt. Well, how do you think that’s gonna play out? In Canada, as I mentioned, we add into a declining economic performance and declining capital investment that adds to risk. So I’m just making it clear that it’s sort of there’s times to hit homeruns. And maybe you do that with a small proportion of your portfolio 10 or 15%, or something. But the real key is who’s going to be surviving here? And you listen to people like foumous investors like Stanley Druckenmiller, you know, he’ll say the same thing. Been around 50 years. And this is there’s just too much risk. And I don’t think there’s anybody who just heard me list that off, who doesn’t think that’s true? You know what I mean? Like, okay, so make sure you’re performing. And I know, that’s one of your emphasis is that Integrated Wealth Management, just have the right perspective, you get me through this period, like you just described, you not only got through that period, you benefited, you know, that period. So that’s the backdrop to any investment decision. And again, this is just my opinion, but it’s one that’s been around a long time. I mean, look at me, my God, I get a plastic surgeon note and hair dye, because I’ve been there, but you’ve got to survive those periods. And then so it’s within that context that I look at how best to do that. You mentioned the World Outlook Conference, I started by saying, anybody who’s got their faith in government, that’s going to solve your problems are going to be so disappointed for a huge for that is the biggest financial mistake you can make. I mean, they’ve proven incompetent in so many areas, and I don’t care which government you’re putting in there, you know, they can’t do it. So you’ve got to do it. So, you know, what are you going to do to protect yourself? You know, going forward? How are you going to protect your buying power? So that’s the context in which I make every investment decision. And I want to add one more, though, to that. So they asked us or Canada, that’s not even close. It’s us. But here’s the other reason, which do you think has the more vibrant tech sector? Which country do you think has the more entrepreneurial not individuals are some great entrepreneurs? But as you know, you’ve got you’re planting 5000 more seeds in the States than you’re in Canada for variety of reasons. Again, that’s why the increase in capital gains whatever you support, or don’t, you have to note that the innovators, the entrepreneurs, the tech sector is saying no to that, again, you can say that’s fine with me.
Andrew 44:32
Yeah, but capital goes where it’s protected, where it thinks it’s going to be treated best in terms of risk, reward, taxation, currency, and ultimately the scariest one, which is seizure. Right?
Mike Campbell 44:44
Very important. So the tech component, I’ve had trouble like, a lot of older time, guys like Warren Buffett, my best friend. No, I’m just kidding. No, but it’s tough sometimes to get the valuation. You know we did an interview going back, I’m going off the top of my head is May 2022, about CHIP wars, with the guy who wrote the book. It was only from that, that I wanted to take a small piece of the video. And it grew to a bigger piece. You know, we’ve consistently recommended certain technology stocks, Microsoft comes to mind because we did it for about four years in a row at the World Outlook Conference. Same reason, but they’re asking so yeah, I prefer the US I think the opportunities are bigger than, again, keep in mind the difference in their governments. Their states are far more independent in jurisdiction than our provinces are. So you can say, I hate that, you know, whether it’s Trump or Biden coming up, I hate them both. I hate each one who cares? The individual state will make it more attractive to invest or not. So right now, we obviously South Florida, we’ve seen Texas, you know, other reasons you’ve seen Nevada, you’ve seen Arizona, so you can actually be in a bad general system, but specifically the state can be welcoming.
Andrew 46:07
And Tennessee is another one of those states. That’s certainly welcome. Right and a little bit with the Carolinas and, and even Georgia, right.
Mike Campbell 46:15
And I’ll add just one tip, quick thing, sorry. But when you asked me that question about US or Canada, I’m certainly not alone. It’s not like I got some really original deep insight in there. I think it’s pretty obvious. And it’s been obvious to many, many pension funds, we see that we’ve had great benefit from having James Thorne, chat with us. And he’s pounded the table on that. So we’ve been pounding that table for about three years hard though, saying you’ve got to get exposure to US currency and US markets.
Andrew 46:46
Well, and it was interesting, because at the last Outlook Conference, I was in the back of the room and listening to James Thorne. And he’s talking about get the heck out of Canada until we get rid of the idiot in 24 Sussex Drive. And he said, pretty much that that directly. And then at the next presentation was Joseph Schachter and right after Joseph was when I was presenting and talking about investing in, in basically in the commodity space. And this the distinction that, that I talked about, and we talked about a bit further on the subsequent webinar. Last one is that it’s less about the country. If you’re just talking, if you’re talking about sectors, now broadly speaking US currency, you know, the, the culture of innovation and risk taking, and where the tech brains are, but at the same time here in Canada, so I wouldn’t be investing in tech or, or other all say, more staid types of of investments unless you’re looking for the dividend. But I’d be focusing on the sectors. So it’s not US or Canada. It’s which sectors do you really want?
Mike Campbell 48:02
And if it is tech, though, that leads you where you’re going? Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. Yes. Yeah. I think the other thing people think politically, I try not to because it’s irrelevant to movements. You know, I mean, there’s impact, but my point only being No, I think the Canadians have made a very clear choice, and they have an even clearer choice when we come to the next election. And that is, what priorities that the various parties have. So obviously, you cannot make a reasonable case that the priority for the federal Liberals under Prime Minister Trudeau has been the economy. You know, it’s not productivity, and we’re just delivering the results. There has been climate change. So people whose top priority is climate change would much prefer the federal Liberals over the alternative, if that’s the Conservative Party. But I think the choice is so crystal clear that it’s really about choices and Canadians have to sit back. And I’ve never seen such distinct choices. I’ve been critical of the political commentary because they said they haven’t really noticed. And I, I put I posted this, that you look at the last prime minister and finance minister does lower capital gains. Paul Martin. Oh, Martin expressed exactly what someone who prioritizes economics, and he made some statement, that’s pretty much like, if someone’s going to invest, we want them in Canada, someone’s going to create jobs. We want them in Canada. So he made that statement, obviously. Finance Minister Freeland is talking about fairness. And so as a prime minister, this is tax fairness. Those are very different agendas. And Canadians. Why I don’t know why politicians that sort of I appreciate this just a personal bug. Why don’t they just tell the truth and be proud of the agenda they’re pushing, not, you know, cast aspersions with hyperbole on somebody else. This is a very clear choice. And we have been making it. And we’ll have consequences to both. And you have to decide which it is. Now, obviously, what a surprise. I think the foundation of social programs, I don’t have to stretch for this. The foundation of social programs is a strong economy, not taxation. Well, the finance minister be fair would disagree with me. You look at her statement, she thinks it’s taxation, and they say you’ve got nothing to tax, you actually have nothing, you can’t redistribute wealth before it’s first earned? So these are fundamental philosophical differences. And when we come to the next federal election, that’s what people should understand they’re voting on forget about these slights and all this stuff. Someone doesn’t like the Prime Minister’s attitude or the conservative leaders attitude, or whatever it is, boy, is that small potatoes compared to that.
Andrew 50:47
Soo are you actually saying that the economy won’t just grow from the heart out and the budget will balance itself? Is that what you’re saying?
Mike Campbell 50:55
I mean, the absurdity of those statements. But again, someone who thinks politics first might make those, you know, and I can look, I can offer up lots of criticisms. But I think it’s really important that Canadians say, remove all that. What’s the priorities for this government or the party?
Andrew 51:48
So question. On Special Olympics, you have been such an advocate. How did you become interested? And so I’ll say captivated by Special Olympics because that has been your your charitable hobbyhorse for as long as I can remember,
Mike Campbell 52:11
Well, like many people, you know, they have other areas that I respect. First of all, I think I’m much bigger on doers than talkers. I’m serious, I have a real problem with talkers, you can imagine what I think of virtue signalers, who don’t translate that into actual action. So it starts with your personal value on that. Secondly, this is a group that is completely ignored. And I can give you so many examples, but we just went through COVID. Now, I can’t speak to the health officer in Alberta. But I can tell you in Canada, and in British Columbia, I never once heard them mention the vulnerability of people with intellectual disabilities. And by the way, they were the, other than people over 80, they were the next most likely group to have dire consequences. No one else was close to these people now. Mainly, that’s because they have other comorbidities, you know, and other things. But my point is, what a non surprise for me, completely ignored by society. And that’s why I love it when someone steps up, and helps. And Andrew, you’ve been doing that with integrated Wealth Management consistently. What a difference it makes. The other thing I’m a parent, and to be able to make, this is the most joyful thing, our athletes and they run from, say four years old to 84 experience in their lives. And boy, I rarely get a chance to make a difference like that in somebody’s life. So well. It’s all of these things come together for me.
Andrew 53:39
And going back to what you said about about people with intellectual disabilities being so incredibly vulnerable all the time, but especially during COVID. The intro that you gave at the Special Olympics, a golf tourney last Thursday, so five days ago in Richmond, and you introduced Jason and he talked about how incredibly important his special Olympics community was through COVID. We texted and we were on Zoom. And I was standing there with Grant and his father in law and with the fourth group Jason, and good thing my glasses were dark from the sun because I actually started to tear up because that’s the incredible power of community. It was hard for all of us. Obviously the isolation was amongst the worst things. But it’s just so incredibly important that everybody has a community that they feel that they belong to. And you couple that with athletics, right. It’s honestly the Special Olympians that I’ve met over the last, I don’t know eight or nine years of being at the various events. They’re all healthier than most other people their age.
Mike Campbell 54:59
And that’s one of the focuses. Absolutely, we do a program called healthy athlete. And you have wonderful people volunteering in Alberta wonderful people helping BC, across the country. And I come back to the difference. Let’s talk to one of the parents. Can you imagine this, you know, people who are parents can appreciate, they all want the best for their son. I mean, one of the most delightful stories I’ve had came back a number of years ago, someone named James Sutherland had a wonderful young man participating all over, it participated, literally from a, I think, as a four year old. And then the next program for them, we talked, we start with motor control. It’s called active start, we go to the next stage is called Fundamentals. And this is where you teach. I’m being liberal what color your team is, which direction you’re going. Then James just told a wonderful story in front of a big audience. And he says, we’re so proud. All of our scored his first goal and soccer. And of course, everyone applauds. And then he goes, and next year, we hope he does it on the right goal. Yeah, he was just lovely. But yeah, so there’s, I mean, everyone, as I say, people are working hard in various areas, I really encourage that. But what an area to walk the walk, because this is the highlight of these people’s lives. I love your word community. This is where their friends are. Otherwise, the isolation and that’s why COVID was so difficult, because many of the athletes as they, you know, become adults live in group homes. And the isolation is hard to understand. And hard. And again, Special Olympics did a phenomenal, I was shocked at how well our staff did in just continually engaging them. And we would they do online zoom exercise classes. And people should understand that they have real requirements, the hopes for our athletes, if you want to be on a provincial team, if you want to go to a national team or a world games, they all have standards they have to meet in terms of commitment. You can be in a lower division, but you’re asked the same things. And the volunteers are wonderful parents are greatly supportive. But the impact on athletes, by the way, never asked me about Special Olympics, because we’ve got six hours left to me talking about it.
Andrew 57:14
Exactly. Well, that’s kind of why I left it till the end. But it was a smart play, have had to make sure that I asked. So we’re coming down to the last minute and a half or so. And we’re not able to get to all the questions. This has been absolutely a delight. Obviously, I mean, I first met you 25 years ago, and I drove to the airport after the events in Edmonton and my daughter and son were in the backseat. I remember that clearly. And that daughter just had her first baby and my third child, also a daughter is having a baby in July. So you know, time flies while you’re having fun.
Mike Campbell 57:53
And I’ll tell you one more quick story, because that’s it’s wonderful. Anybody who’s listening today and has grandchildren knows it’s wonderful. I have three. So I’m going to put on the Moneytalks, tweets, this weekend, the reaction of my granddaughter to hearing Moneytalks for the first time. Absolutely hilarious.
Andrew 58:16
Hilarious. because that’s grandpa’s voice, right?
Mike Campbell 58:18
Yeah let’s just put it this way. She didn’t find me too scintillating. He nodded off pretty darn quickly.
Andrew 58:26
Awesome. Well, and there’s one last thing that I’m going to say here before we wrap up right on time as as promised, because you know, you have other things you have to do today. One of the things that I’ve been asked in the past is what’s Mike like in person. And the thing that I’ve told everybody, same thing about Vic, is that you’re actually much as direct and as funny as you are in, in public life. You’re funnier, and you’re actually one of the kindest people I’ve ever met.
Mike Campbell 58:46
That’s very kind.
Andrew 58:50
Yeah. And genuine and straightforward. You’re not a media figure who’s, you know, you have your public face and you have your personal face. You know, you’re one and the same, except kinder in person. So I just wanted, I thought I’d mention that because you’ve been very, very influential in my professional life, and thank you.
Mike Campbell 59:23
Well, thank you. It’s a pleasure. Absolute pleasure today.
Andrew 59:26
All right. Well, thanks so much for attending. That’s the IWM big picture podcast with one of the best big picture speakers and truth tellers out there. Mike Campbell. Thanks again, Mike.
Mike Campbell 59:38
Thank you. Cheers.
