Hello…remember me? It’s been eons since I’ve written Views from the Crowsnest on a regular basis. Just over six years ago life happened, followed shortly by Covid happening to the world.
We shifted our focus to the most urgent matters with the time and energy available: working more intensely with our Portfolio Managers to minimize drawdown of Client portfolios and understand their recovery strategies, and communicating with Clients and others via meetings, emails and webinars.
After persistent encouragement from my colleague Sandor Kiss, I’ve agreed to write Views from the Crowsnest on a quarterly basis. This newsletter will focus on the bigger picture issues I see developing over the horizon from the Crowsnest. Some will be economic and financial, others geo-political and social. All will be relevant to the long-term wealth, health and happiness of our Client Families.
The length will vary somewhat but I’ll try to keep each edition to a maximum 15-minute read. I can’t promise a consistent format, but I do commit to always telling you what I really think after consuming and digesting 35-40 hours a week of news and opinion from myriad sources.
Sometimes this requires taking flight from the safety of the Crowsnest atop the mast, to gain altitude and see even further over the horizon. My “alter-eagle” Henry is very helpful in this regard. I’m opinionated but always make sure I’m well-informed before offering any commentary. I’ll also provide reference sources should you desire a few trips down the proverbial rabbit hole.
Please understand that the issues that concern me DO NOT TRANSLATE INTO A DOOMSDAY VIEW predicting financial market mayhem or other Armageddon-like scenarios. I share all our concerns with our Portfolio Managers and they are added to the roster of risks they monitor. And of course, any crisis contains both danger and opportunity. Forewarned is forearmed.
Here are the most important issues on my radar for 2026:
The fiscal health of all government levels in Canada, the U.S., Europe and Japan. More on that in future editions as urgency arises
Wars: Ukraine, the Middle East and perhaps Venezuela soon…but most pressingly in Ukraine. War is mankind’s worst failure, always promoted by governments. The delusional pack of “leaders” in the UK, France and Germany (“The Three Amigos”), the EU and NATO itself are deeply troubling. At every turn they interfere in negotiations to end the needless death, destruction and displacement of real humans in Ukraine and Russia. They lobby for more weapons that they have no money to buy…from the (mostly U.S.) military-industrial-complex (MIC) which cannot produce them rapidly enough…to give to Ukraine which is running out of soldiers to use them…in a battle that Russia is obviously already winning, and which they could end with a few more hypersonic missile attacks. The EU/NATO stance is totally crazy and obviously suicidal for western and central Europe.
So, why this insane stance? The only potential motivation of that rings true is that the EU and NATO leaders so desperately want to hold onto power despite their wildly unpopular policies. They see a full-on war with Russia as the cover to default on their excessive debt and social obligations, and their playbook is obvious: demonize Putin, throw up every obstacle to a true peace agreement, manipulate the EU population into believing that Russia wants to takeover all of Europe, send even more young men and women to die fighting Putin, continue the de-industrialization of our economies enroute to bankrupting each country, erase our sovereign debt obligations and start over again without admitting that the EU socialist experiment was a failure. The only thing missing is a False Flag attack on a NATO country that creates the casus belli. Armstrong has recently warned of this possibility. The dis-integration of the EU is getting closer!
The most tragic element of this is that the “great unwashed masses” of everyday people are cannon fodder in pursuit of the Utopian fantasy of these self-described “elite.” And while they’re running these “plays,” we appear to be very close to a major inflection point in the negotiation process that Trump is trying to pull off, despite his being totally ill-suited to a negotiation of this scope and the U.S. being a co-belligerent in the conflict – not a true mediator. The longer it takes to reach a true peace agreement, the worse the settlement terms will be for Ukraine, in addition to yet more needless death and destruction. After all, the losing side accepts the terms and conditions of the victors.
Zelensky and his corrupt band of co-conspirators are even more deranged than the EU and NATO decision makers. They’re sacrificing their OWN PEOPLE and country. They’ve already siphoned off billions to foreign lands in anticipation of being able to slip out quietly before their (French and MI-6) bodyguards stand down and let Ukrainian patriots take care of business.
(Sources: Armstrong Economics, Larry Johnson of SONAR21, Judge Napolitano, Jeffrey Sachs, John Meirsheimer, Glenn Diesen, Pepe Escobar, Col Douglas MacGregor, Col Daniel Davis, Col Jacques Baud, Dialogue Works, Sebastian Sas, et al)
The Richmond-Cowichan B.C. court decision. This is a ticking Constitutional bomb, whose timer appears to have been deliberately started by the B.C. and Federal political elites by virtue of what these legal teams did NOT argue for: the supremacy of fee simple land ownership. Only Richmond’s legal team argued for this, and MAY therefore be permitted to argue this principle in an eventual Appeal in the B.C. Supreme Court. Was this treasonous behaviour from B.C. and Ottawa? You can decide for yourself. John Weston will soon release a new book on this matter, “First Nations and the Future of Canada.” Given how unfriendly Canada has already become to Foreign Direct Investment, this could be the issue that accelerates the decline in global confidence. (Source: Money Talks Podcast of Dec 13, 2025 starting at 41:15)
Mark Carney. Intrepid Canadian investigative journalist and publisher of The Bureau, Sam Cooper, has written extensively on Mr. Carney’s background and the trail of shady self-interested deals that Carney made immediately prior to his coronation as Liberal leader. Not only are these transactions favorable to his former employer Brookfield Asset Management, but they indicate a strong bias towards the interests of the Chinese Communist Party…with very obvious bright line connections to the most recent floor crossing of MP Michael Ma in the riding of Markham-Unionville.
The biggest local issue of concern is Alberta and Saskatchewan’s future place in Canada, with the Alberta Independence movement being the near-term catalyst. There’s currently around 32-35% support for Independence in Alberta, and slightly higher in Saskatchewan according to some polls. There’s very heavy support in rural areas. Folks whose lives require being more self-reliant, and who receive far less support from federal programs than the city-folk overall, are naturally less fearful of being formally independent from Ottawa. On balance, they’re ready to leave yesterday
Even in urban and suburban centres, trust in Mr. Carney, the Federal Liberals and the bureaucracy is extremely low, especially with those with direct financial reliance on the oil and gas sector. And of course, everyone is at least indirectly dependent on our energy sector. There isn’t yet a majority desire to take that next step and support separation, but that could change…
The Alberta Prosperity Project’s referendum question has been approved by Elections Alberta and starting January 2nd the APP will have 120 days to meet or exceed the new threshold of roughly 177,000 validated signatures. That takes us to the end of April, while the recently-signed MOU between Alberta and the Federal government has important deadlines for Federal actions of April 1st. It’s overwhelmingly likely that Alberta will hold an Independence Referendum in October 2026, so if this feels like a game of “Chicken” that’s because it IS.
Keith Wilson is an extremely careful, measured and articulate Constitutional Lawyer. He just started a YouTube channel explaining the pro-Independence side. I strongly believe that the rough and tumble (yet extremely intelligent lawyer) Jeff Rath has maximized his usefulness for the Independence movement. Moderates in the vote-rich urban and suburban areas will be turned off by his style and the personal attacks he frequently launches against anyone who doesn’t want to barrel ahead full speed. Less Jeff Rath and more Dr. Dennis Modri.
While no politician or party is perfect, my opinion is that Danielle Smith and Scott Moe are doing an overall excellent job representing their respective province’s interests in these matters. If any team of Premiers are capable of negotiating a better deal for Alberta and Saskatchewan and thereby prevent the YES side from winning an October Independence Referendum, it’s these two.
As a firm, we’ve already raised this matter with our Portfolio Managers and will begin discussions early in 2026. We can’t influence the outcomes for Alberta, Saskatchewan and Canada, but we’ll be exploring the practical matters that affect our Clients regardless of their province of residence.
Thankfully, the news and outlook are never as bad as they seem, and as noted above there’s always opportunity somewhere. Our managers will continue doing an excellent job of finding these investments and wisely buying them during pullbacks. Broadly speaking, these include carefully-managed Commodities and their producers, other quality Stocks mostly in the U.S. and Canada, Hard Assets with intrinsic and/or historic value (very shiny things and dirt) seasoned with Private Alternatives and high-quality Corporate Bonds.
Patience and discipline are accretive to your wealth, health and happiness…so focus on these. Happy New Year.
It’s good to be back.
Cheers,
Andrew Henry Ruhland, CFP
Founder, Integrated Wealth Management Inc.
