From the Crow’s Nest – July 2016 Edition

Welcome to the July 2016 edition of Views from the Crowsnest.

So much has happened since my previous newsletter and June 24th post-Brexit message that I’m going to get straight to business.

Ignoring economic realities and financial market movements and getting caught in the adolescent drama of mainstream media’s obsession with modern politics produces only negative results, including but not limited to the following: frustration, outrage, feelings of powerlessness, and a re-direction of time and energy that is more productively deployed in matters where we can make a difference for those we serve professionally.

Brexit was just the start of the Age of Consequences: a global economic daisy chain overshadowed by a shrill political farce. This is the reality of our current public discourse, at least in the mainstream media: Crisis du Jour + Hillary & Donald + Entertainment “News” = Squirrel!

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From the Crow’s Nest – April 2014 Edition

Greetings!

Welcome to the April 2014 edition of Views from the Crows Nest. A lot has transpired in the interval since our 2014 Annual Forecast Issue, and it appears that market action is now heating up again. Are you prepared to dance to “The European Shuffle?”

The last six months have been extraordinarily busy for our firm, with a focus on transitioning clients to the Portfolio Managers that we approved and hired in late 2013. While making major changes of any kind is never easy, early success (solid investment performance) following the transition has confirmed the prudence of our decision to hire new investment partners. I like it when the first steps taken together are in a positive direction.

It’s really quite remarkable how easily one can discern lower stress in hindsight. The proverbial frog that boils to death in a slowly warming pot cannot adequately perceive its own peril simply because the change is gradual, not unlike Jim Dines’ laser-focused expression, “Those inside the bubble cannot see the bubble.” Thank goodness for those who care enough to pop our own bubble when they see what we cannot or will not perceive.

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2014 Annual “Forecast”

Greetings!

Welcome to the 2014 Annual “Forecast” edition of Views from the Crows Nest. One of the many challenges with publishing a document that is intended to cover a one year period is that so much can change in a year.

Another challenge is choosing a theme, especially now when my creative faculties are wide open to receiving wisdom from countless sources. It’s not always this easy, so I’m deeply grateful when I am blessed with an almost embarrassing abundance of ideas, opportunities and new connections.

The most obvious challenge, though, is getting the actual forecasts themselves accurate enough to actually be useful and helpful to readers. The reality is that high-quality forecasts and advice are only as useful as they are timely, so forecasts that are too broad can actually be counter-productive.

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Views from the Crows Nest: December 2013 Issue

Welcome to this edition of Views from the Crowsnest. It’s been many months since I sat down to peck out my newsletter. We’ve been busy with important AND time-sensitive matters, as our Client Families always come first. It’s good to be back.

My wife and I love to watch comedy as we relax before bed, and one of my favorite stand-up routines from the Montreal Comedy Festival is a rant from a humorist whose character is a bombastic pub owner from GREAT BRITAIN! In answer to the question about why Brits and Canadians don’t have their own dream, like our neighbours with “The American Dream,” he answers quite poignantly, “It’s because we’re awake.”

The Renaissance Era in western civilization took place following many centuries of tight control of the scientific, creative and philosophical communities by the Catholic Church. The severity of this centralized control was a significant factor in the scope and force of the eventual bursting of the shackles…not unlike compressing a spring that cannot be permanently constrained.
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Views from the Crows Nest: July 2013 Issue

Welcome to the July edition of Views from the Crows Nest.

Calgary summers are short, and so this edition will be, too.

Too much of almost anything is bad for us, including essential elements of a healthy lifestyle. Food, drink, sunshine, and exercise in moderation are excellent, but in excess they can be destructive.

The same holds true of information consumption. In respect of our investment portfolio, the mainstream financial industry would have us believe that more information is always better. The typical hooks that broader media use include: conflict (very polarized market opinions), celebrity (what the richest and famous Wall Street types are saying), fear of missing out on gains (greed), and fear of losing capital (this is the big hot-button).

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Views from the Crows Nest: June 2013 Issue

Welcome to the June edition of Views from the Crows Nest.

There are certain times – like now – when investment markets appear to be in a state of “suspended animation.” And it’s extreme times like these when the disconnection of markets from common sense, logic and rational valuation puts our Patience and Discipline to the test in an almost overwhelming way. Rest assured, a major tipping point is coming soon, perhaps even before the next edition of this newsletter.

Since the equity markets hit their crisis bottom in early March 2009, many investors have been waiting for the second half of the global debt hurricane to hit. This bias, based on then-recent experience, makes it difficult for many to ride an uptrend with patience…after having been burned significantly by market declines that mainstream “experts” said were simply not possible. It’s also incredibly difficult to forget the emotional and financial pain caused by the 2008-9 financial crises.

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Views from the Crows Nest: May 2013 Issue

Welcome to the May 2013 Views from the Crowsnest.

The great gold trader Jessie Livermore is credited with saying “The biggest profits are in your patience.” This wisdom rings true whether you are still invested in US equities which continue to rise seemingly incessantly, or you are waiting to play the downside in equity markets.

And if you’ve already exited most or all of the equity positions in your portfolio, you may find yourself feeling rather impatient while waiting for the current market euphoria to end. Patience, indeed.

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Views from the Crows Nest: April 2013 Issue

The interval since my last Views from the Crows Nest

has been longer than usual. When one is faced with a family member in a health crisis, financial markets don’t graciously pause while we deal with these priorities. Thus we still need to attend to markets with a calm focus, which left no time for writing.

After a surreal and determined rise in the face of ever-growing fundamental risks, broad U.S. equity markets appear to be nearing the end of seasonal strength. Defensive measures will be taken for any current stock-based positions once the markets confirm the upward trend has been broken. In the meantime, there may be some more upside left to capture. Market tension is high but that doesn’t  preclude a continued rise of prices for a week or two. Eventually we’ll get to that tipping point when bad news begins to get priced in again.

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Views from the Crows Nest: February 2013 Issue

“Mass Media Mimics Mass Mania”

Since our January edition of Views from the Crows Nest, equity markets continued their slow grind higher for almost two weeks. In the last two weeks we’ve finally begun to see signs of a short-term market top. One of the most reliable signs of an inflection point was delivered yet again by the mainstream media.

On Saturday February 2nd, uber-accurate gold market timer Mark Leibovit spoke at the World Outlook Financial Conference and remarked about a powerful headline in that day’s business section of the Globe & Mail. In reference to the equity market rally, they declared “The End of Fear.” We know from experience that “The Herd is always wrong at the extremes, but creates the trend in between.”

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Views from the Crows Nest: January 2013 Issue

Welcome to the January 2013 issue of Views from the Crows Nest.

Well, the folks in Washington D.C. certainly did another number on investment markets with a slightly- later-than-eleventh-hour “fiscal cliff fluff deal” that does nothing to address a life-threatening spending addiction by the US federal government. And now we get to listen to endless yammering about raising the debt ceiling.

Over the next six weeks this debate will escalate, with the predictable grandstanding, digging in of heels, standing on principle, then caving in at the last minute to prevent both a shutdown of the US Federal Government and any kind of default on outstanding US debt obligations. It will likely become the primary hot button topic for everyone, cause a significant rise in market anxiety and serve as a wonderful distraction from everything else that is happening. In a democracy, a nation gets the government it deserves.

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