What I Learned at Martin Armstrong’s Orlando Conference

Last week I attended the Institutional and Technical Analysis sessions at Martin Armstrong’s World Economic Conference in balmy Orlando, along with the Chief Investment Officer of one of our discretionary Portfolio Managers from Toronto. This trip was the most recent step of my 22 year project of bringing Marty’s precision models into how our Clients’ money is managed.

martyface

The three most important takeaways were: we’re on the right track, most people using the Socrates system as a standalone are still challenged, and Socrates is a very precise tool best used by skilled hands. Here’s a bullet-point summary:

We’re on the right track:

1) Marty’s major forecasts around currency allocation, gold, stocks and government bonds have been exceptionally accurate, so our Client portfolios are well –positioned, and ready for what lies ahead

2) Trump’s election does NOT change the bigger picture long-term trend directions, but he may help to steepen/accelerate a few of them, like:

  • capital inflows to the $USD, stocks, etc. by virtue of proposed reductions in corporate taxation
  • rising bond yields based on promises of massive infrastructure spending that will need to be financed with additional debt…pushing the U.S. closer to the crest of the slippery slope

3) The fact that Trump’s election and some of his early Cabinet appointments have shaken things up in virtually every major Establishment institution (EU, UN, MSM, the Fed, et al) probably means he’s headed in the right direction. In particular, the MSM snowflakes are proving why their trust ratings are bunched up down around their collective ankles

4) I met conference attendees from about 10 different countries, and a clear theme emerged: very successful non-mainstream people have become successful mostly because they understand that being non-mainstream is not “extreme.” The masses are – by definition – wrong at the extremes, but they create the trend in between. Being an independent thinker means that you are willing and able to “ride the herd without becoming one of them,” and you don’t really care at all about being popular

  • Most people who are using Socrates as a standalone platform are having trouble:

1) Marty’s ECM and Socrates works very effectively when used properly, but it’s a new and different framework with its own language

2) Socrates does not prevent people from making foolish investment decisions based on their own biases and psychological weaknesses

3) The people who are using Socrates unsuccessfully have some common traits: insufficient diversification, undisciplined trade execution, hyper-active trading frequency, and very sloppy risk management

  • Socrates is a very precise tool best used by skilled hands.  As one of Marty’s team explained it, a wise parent wouldn’t give a sniper rifle to a child…because they can hurt themselves and others without the proper training and maturity. Specifically:

1) Socrates is NOT supposed to be used as a day-trading platform

2) Socrates should be used in tandem with an existing disciplined framework, including proper diversification, disciplined trade execution, moderate trading frequency, and with very disciplined risk management in place

3) Our managers will utilize Socrates to make sure Client portfolios:

  • Are on the right side of every major currency move
  • Are over-weighted in asset classes that have the best risk : reward potential
  • Avoid major losses from high-risk asset classes, and possibly benefit by shorting these asset classes
  • Click here to find out more about how this works http://integratedwealthmanagement.ca/special-video/

Our team is looking forward to hearing Marty again at Michael Campbell’s upcoming World Outlook Financial Conference, as well as sharing our insights with attendees during the Personal Finance Workshops.

Patience and discipline are accretive to your wealth, health and happiness – so focus on these.

Cheers,

Andrew H. Ruhland, CFP, CIM

Founder and President

Integrated Wealth Management Inc.

Dealing with Lump Sums

Are you sitting with a large cash position and wondering what to do? Are you feeling anxious over the market conditions based on the U.S. election, and not sure about making the next move? You’re not alone, and this article can help.

deer_in_the_headlights

Whether the cash came from the sale of a business or real estate, a pension roll-out or stock option exercise, an inheritance or simply seeking shelter from the next anticipated market downturn…having a large amount in cash is both comforting AND anxiety provoking.

The older you are and the bigger the lump sum, the more challenging this becomes. It’s easy to over-think the situation and end up feeling like the proverbial “deer in the headlights” especially if you’re concerned about market valuations and event risk.

A wise mentor once told me that “when your principles are sound, they can never fight you,” so in our firm we’ve designed principle-based processes to deal with almost every major situation that clients experience over a lifetime…we live the mantra “process provides protection.” Maybe that’s why intelligent and analytical people are drawn to us? What I know for certain is that this methodical process dramatically reduces stress and improves the longer-term outcomes. Here it is:

  • Assess how this lump sum needs to complement the other investments you currently have, including these questions:
    1. How confident are we in how the rest of our portfolio is being managed, especially regarding risk management?
    2. Does our current financial advisor have all the tools necessary to deal with future challenges and opportunities?
    3. If you’re self-managing, do you still want to have the primary responsibility for day to day investment decisions?
    4. If you have your portfolio divided between multiple advisors, have you considered the potential cost savings, portfolio coordination benefits and additional tax deductions that you could be missing out on?
  • Once you’ve carefully answered the questions above, and are comfortable with the asset mix and investment vehicles you’ll be buying into, we get to the most stressful part. Just like eating an elephant, we recommend doing it one bite at a time. Here’s how we implement:
    1. Decide on how many tranches you want to divide your lump sum into. It could be 3 or 4 equal portions, or another number you’re comfortable with.
    2. Decide on the frequency of getting the subsequent tranches of capital invested, perhaps monthly or every six weeks.
    3. Add tactically to each asset class as it experiences its own natural dip
    4. Be ready to pounce. Crisis contains danger for the unprepared, and opportunity for the well-prepared and patient types. If a major buying opportunity materializes during the systematic implementation process described so far, that’s the best thing that could possibly happen. You get to buy under-valued assets while others are selling them in a panic, thus taking advantage of “Mass Psychology” instead of being the victim of it.
  • Once fully implemented, monitor and adjust as necessary, using the risk management parameters and systems that you’re comfortable with. If someone else is managing the portfolio, get clarity on exactly how they manage downside risk.

This process works like a charm, but you need to follow it systematically.

Patience and discipline are accretive to your wealth, health and happiness, so focus on these.

Cheers,

Andrew H. Ruhland, CFP, CIM

Founder and President

Integrated Wealth Management Inc. in Calgary

Never ever count out the dark horse

Hangover, shock, disbelief, anger, damaged egos…all part of the aftermath of the U.S. elections. Oh, and a very different tone on mainstream TV shows.

Martin Armstrong’s models got it right once again. 3 out of his 4 models called a Republican victory with > 80% voter turnout. This is yet another confirmation that Armstrong’s computer is truly special.

US equity futures plummeted as the Trump victory started to emerge last night but have recovered most of the declines just as markets are poised to open.

The very best thing about Trump’s victory last night is that “the little guy” who has been disenfranchised by the elitist power structure exercised their democratic franchise to push back against the corrupt political classes.

Trump himself is still a buffoon in many ways, but he and his team proved that they had superior focus, determination, and commitment. Most importantly they understood the widespread feelings of powerlessness within the very divided states of America. And they did it with less than 25% of the media spend than the other side.

I’m quite enjoying watching the talking heads on every US network choke on their humble pie. It’s also interesting to note that they actually understand the populist essence of this victory. Joe Scarborough on MSNBC just admitted the arrogance and advocacy role of the mainstream media.

The US has now elected one of its two deeply flawed candidates to be President and the hard work begins…with roughly 49% of the electorate hating him. We’ll see what he does with 2 years of Republican majorities in the House and Senate.

Never EVER count out a dark horse. They have depth, desire and focus…and they thrive on the challenge of beating the odds.

It’s interesting that Hillary hasn’t spoken publicly yet. Was she asleep before the final results or perhaps having one of her legendary meltdowns? Or maybe “putting out a contract” on Donald Trump like she has with roughly 66 previous political opponents? Will she contest the results?

Cheers,

Andrew

A bold prediction…we’ll see how it turns out

First of all, I wish to express my sincere regrets that the U.S. elections are such big news even here in Canada…collectively it feels like we need to be deloused and scrubbed with disinfectant.

I’ve been pretty clear in my various newsletters, articles and conversations that I believe that neither of the two leading Presidential candidates are worthy of the Office they seek. To be brutally frank, both candidates have disgusted me in ways that were unthinkable until about 16 months ago. I cannot cast a ballot, nor do I endorse either candidate.

I’ve unequivocally stated – ad nauseam for some – that whomever wins, America loses. And whomever loses, they will call for vote re-counts and accuse the other side of voter fraud. I’ve already seen numerous stories of fraud in respect of counting early voter ballots, and that story will explode. Neither candidate can be accurately characterized as a gracious loser.

I believe the Whitehouse will be occupied starting in late January 2017 by the candidate whom the largest block of voters “fear and hate less.” Will that be one misogynist or two?

I’ve also stated that the popularity of Trump is not based (primarily) on Trump himself even though I’m sure The Donald secretly wishes it were so…it’s because he has aligned his campaign with an incredibly large segment of the U.S. electorate who feel – for a variety of reasons – that the corruption and elitism of the U.S. system needs to be cleaned up, and that Donald Trump is brazen enough to actually do it. It’s elitism/status quo versus populism and necessary change.

Whether or not he could or would follow through on his promise to “drain the swamp” of Washington, D.C. is quite another matter, but Trump has become the candidate who gives many people their first real hope of actually dismantling the expensive corruption that pervades all federal institutions – regardless of which party is in power in Congress or the White House. Trump gives many disempowered people the hope of actually being empowered. He’s not particularly articulate, but this serves to endear him to many people who have learned by experience to distrust people who are too articulate, too polished, and got too rich while working in “public service.”

One of the great things about this election is the fact that the mainstream media (excluding Fox and Rebel.Media) has been outed as being horribly biased, scheming, misleading, disingenuous and downright dishonest colluding cheerleaders for the Clinton campaign. They have basically given the Clinton campaign a free ride, and the polls are still incredibly close. This speaks to the weakness of the Clinton campaign, which has spent most of its time trying to suppress investigations and actively manipulating media coverage of the MANY Clinton scandals…and more recently trying to run out the clock.

The article below is from Breitbart, one of several “deplorable, Alt-right” news sites that I visit in order to counter-balance the bias of CNN, MSNBC, ABC/NBC/CBS/GLOBAL/CBC and most of traditional print journalism. Mainstream journalism has openly shown that it is part of the Establishment itself, so they won’t report honestly on their own corruption. This includes Facebook, Twitter and Google…all of whom have been caught red-handed suppressing trending stories or search results that hurt Clinton or favor Trump.

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/11/07/vegas-oddsmaker-predicts-brexit-victory-trump/

With almost every influential celebrity, media outlet and popular technology platform on her side, shouldn’t this already be a blow-out in Clinton’s favor? Even Hillary admitted in one video a month ago that she should be ahead by 15 % points.

This is definitely a change election, and the article above is a very thorough explanation of how Trump just might pull off a dark horse victory, similar to the surprise “Leave” victory in the Brexit vote back on June 23rd. Our managers are watching today’s market surge which has been attributed to traders’ belief that Clinton will win…and are prepared for all outcomes.

To me, this feels a lot like the market top that happened back in May 2, 2011 when the Obama administration proudly announced the capture and killing of Osama bin Laden, which makes me very cautious. The principles of Mass Psychology don’t apply only to the investment markets.

What I do know with certainty is that public confidence in government will continue to decline in the U.S., and this trend is just getting started. It’s good for U.S. stocks because the U.S. is the relatively-strongest economy in the world, and investors have more confidence in corporations than they do in governments. Eventually it will also be VERY good for precious metals investments as well.

Like everyone I discuss this with, I am happiest that the election is finally about to be over with…though the consequences will be felt for years to come. Buckle up, everyone…this is just about to get REALLY interesting.

Namaste 🙂

~ Andrew

October 2016 Update

I just wanted to drop a note as an update to my newsletter from Sept 26th….the springs continue to tighten.

As we approach the Nov 8th U.S. elections, there are several other important “weather systems” converging and which, taken collectively, we believe could trigger some short-term equity market volatility.

The three most significant systems are:

1) the sabre-rattling between the U.S. and Russia in Syria, with the potential of war contagion; both of these nuclear powers are benefitting from the promotion of an external enemy to distract from domestic challenges. Yesterday, Russia urgently recommended that Russian students abroad return home as soon as possible;

2) instability in the Eurozone banks orbiting around Deutsche Bank, stagnant GDP, an immigration crisis that is overwhelming their already stretched welfare systems, and the uncertainties created by a departing U.K and federal elections in France and Germany…and a potential Italian catalyst, and

3) desperation and frustration in Japan stemming from the futility of over 26 years of ineffective monetary and fiscal policy, choking Debt:GDP and an aging population.

We’re in ongoing contact with our Portfolio Managers as part of normal operations, and I’m happy to report that our managers already shared these concerns and had been taking defensive actions within client portfolios as a result of their own internal risk management processes. They have some dry powder after harvesting recent gains, and are patiently awaiting key support levels to get fully long again. If these support levels don’t hold, portfolios can be quickly de-risked even further.

Given how they handled the early 2016 market volatility and the post-Brexit “market zigzag” I am very comfortable with their positioning. With the added benefit of Martin Armstrong’s Socrates(TM) system to provide confirmation, I’m sleeping soundly knowing our Portfolio Managers are vigilant and pro-active, but there will be some short-term volatility that it would be wise to simply tolerate.

Over the summer, we worked on refreshing our website to coincide with beginning to provide editorial content to Michael Campbell’s Money Talks blog. I’ll be posting these articles on our new homepage, including an audio recording of my live radio interview with Mike on Saturday October 15th around 9:53 am Mountain time.

Over the last several years, both long-time and more recent clients have been discussing issues in a few key areas. Many people are starting to see global tensions rise and chatting within their social circles about the potential financial fall-out, and numerous clients started asking us how we’re prepared to deal with these rising risks. To that end, I created this special video to explain what we do and how we do it.

Patience, discipline and compassion are accretive to your wealth, health and happiness – so focus on these.

Cheers,
Andrew H. Ruhland, CFP, CIM
Founder, Integrated Wealth Management Inc.

From the Crow’s Nest – September 2016 Edition

Welcome to Views from the Crowsnest. Surprisingly little has been happening in broad equity markets in North America since my previous missive in July. That is noteworthy, per se. In several ways, this feels like the calm before the storm, so we’d better enjoy it while it lasts.

The same cannot be said for the political landscape in Europe and the U.S., where everything seems to be pushing further and further, reaching hitherto “impossible” levels of bizarreness, bloodiness, and willful blindness – believe me!

Leading up to the Brexit vote, the establishment warned the great unwashed (that’s us) that a “Leave” vote would bring about the destruction of the UK economy. While our managers were vigilantly on their screens in the aftermath of the historic “Leave” decision, and were able to take rapid defensive measures, they quickly had to shift gears as markets declined sharply for under three trading days, then reversed quickly. Predicted doom and gloom turned out to be a tempest in a proper teapot. Bloody hell, those Oxford & Eaton chaps were wrong – possibly a first for many of them!

The absence of a meaningful downward summer swoon in stocks has been a welcome relief from the usual seasonal patterns, but has many folks wondering when we’re due for a pullback or even a correction. Concerns about this are NOT irrational, given the market valuations, the state of the global economy, etc. The longer we go since the last notable downward move in equities (January and February 2016), the more likely the next air-pocket comes along sooner.

From our vantage point high in the Crowsnest, we certainly see a gathering storm, but it’s mostly behind us rather than blocking our planned journey. The developing storm is primarily in the government bond markets, which our clients have had very little exposure to, except for a smattering of very short duration positions. Avoiding major capital destruction in the “safe” long-term government bond markets is a critical part of our forward-looking investment thesis.

The waters ahead show some “moderate swells” in the near term, followed by smoother waters and strong tailwinds. Our managers are mindful of the potential for a sharp drop in stocks over the coming weeks, and are prepared with their defensive measures should the realized volatility be greater than the anticipated volatility. Marty’s Socrates system is already extremely helpful; as of this writing, major indices have not violated any major support or upward trend channels…but we continue to watch carefully.

In investing, there are periods of volatility that simply need to be tolerated as part of generating a better return than a GIC, and there are periods when it makes sense to take significant defensive actions so that your ship doesn’t get swamped. Discernment between these two types of volatility is one of the most important “intangible” qualities of great portfolio managers. Patience and discipline are a big part of the value that our team of money managers provide.

We’ve been delighted with their judgement so far, and they’re not resting on their laurels, either: 3 of our Portfolio Managers have been learning on the Socrates Preview for several months, and are committed to acquisition and utilization of the full version of Martin Armstrong’s Socrates system, which is expected to go live by mid-October 2016. One of our managers (so far) has also committed to attending the next World Economic Conference in Orlando with me. We’re looking forward to the insights at the Institutional and Technical Analysis conferences on November 10 and 11.

In Continental Europe, markets are not quite so rosy. While broader equity markets are about flat since the Brexit vote, their banking sector is still lower, with German mega-bank Deutsche Bank (DB) plummeting to fresh new lows today – down over 30% since the Brexit vote, and down over 60% in the last 12 months.

With a U.S. style bail-out apparently not forthcoming from embattled Angela Merkel’s very unpopular government, I cannot help but wonder if DB will be the Lehman Brothers event for Europe. Their entire banking system is too fragile to withstand its largest player getting into real trouble. A crumbling European financial industry would likely accelerate the flight of capital from Europe to the U.S. and (possibly and ironically) the U.K. as well…and we’re ready for it.

Earlier I mentioned bizarreness, bloodiness and willful blindness. First things first: the bizarre and surreal U.S. Presidential Elections, with the much anticipated first debate set to kick off tonight…complete with marching bands and pep rallies at Hofstra University. Be on the look-out for baseball players eating apple pie with their moms.

The nonsense, deception, prevarication and re-direction coming out of both campaigns, combined with the constant on-air spin, half-truths (on a good day), and bombast are a recipe for headaches and nausea – literally. The threads of credibility previously attributed to mainstream media have been shorn. There’s not even a pretense of objectivity or fairness from the networks, major cable news channels, mainstream print or Facebook.

Despite these major headwinds, the unthinkable is happening: Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are essentially in a dead heat, with Trump currently enjoying the all-important momentum, with a path to 270 Electoral College votes starting to take shape in the very early dawn. Who knows what sunrise will bring?

I stand by my previous published comments in respect of the winner being the candidate whom the majority of US voters fear and hate the least. Whoever wins, one thing is certain: America loses. I don’t relish the dilemma of American voters, charged with the unenviable responsible of picking the flavor of their poison pill. Is it any wonder that confidence in government is in free-fall? If I had to choose the flavor, it would be orange…similar to the hue of Mr. Trump’s spray tan.

The bloodiness is much more distressing. Europe is being overwhelmed by wave after wave of small-scale violent attacks including rape, beheadings, shootings, machete attacks, arson and rock-throwing. Mysteriously, the vast majority of these attacks are perpetrated by young to middle age men who are “new to the area.” Victims are being targeted for such horrible behavior as being young and female, wearing shorts in public, practicing their religion inside churches, and now for being blonde in Sweden.

The willful blindness amongst the mainstream media, the PC academic-classes, pandering politicians and Social Justice Warriors who troll social media (apparently full-time) defies belief. It’s even in the European court system. Specifically in respect of the media, to deliberately avoid reporting of material facts related to the motivations of these jihadists is to play into the hands of the perpetrators.

Being a truth-teller is not racist, xenophobic, bigoted, or Islamophobic. It’s unpleasant, unpopular, and impolite (to some) but it’s also very necessary. I don’t know how much good my mentioning this issue will actually do, but I know for certain that evil prevails where good people do – and say -nothing.

How do we start a reasonable conversation (see video at the BOTTOM of this link) here in western Canada focused on solutions, so we can preserve our safety and security, freedom of speech and our social fabric? As a father of four daughters and uncle of many more, including 3 members of the LGBT community, I am profoundly concerned. Are we going to wait until the violence reaches Europe’s level before this becomes an honest mainstream area of discussion? Ignoring this reality has deadly consequences. I’m writing this calmly, but I feel like yelling.

And then when we look south at the escalating violence, it’s so very easy to become discouraged and frightened. The frequency of violent deaths in the U.S. is highlighting the deep rifts in their society, pitting economically-desperate communities against themselves and against law enforcement when inevitable situations arise.

Again the mainstream media fails to address the core issues, preferring the circus of hysterical commentators and graphic video. It’s pretty obvious that a great many of these violent outbursts end up being the government against the citizens…with both sides being heavily armed and trigger happy. With recent civil unrest, it’s pretty easy to envision a full-on break-down of their fragile social order. Again, it may not make any difference, but we can’t all remain silent and simply hope the trends will change.

Given all that is happening in the world politically, economically, and socially, our team is extremely grateful for the great team of Fiduciary Portfolio Managers we have working for our Clients. Between their patience and discipline and the new tools like Socrates that are becoming available, we are quietly confident that we are on the right path to protect and grow our Clients’ financial wealth.

Patience, discipline and compassion are accretive to your wealth, health and happiness – so focus on these.

Cheers,
Andrew H. Ruhland, CFP, CIM
Founder, Integrated Wealth Management Inc.

From the Crow’s Nest – July 2016 Edition

Welcome to the July 2016 edition of Views from the Crowsnest.

So much has happened since my previous newsletter and June 24th post-Brexit message that I’m going to get straight to business.

Ignoring economic realities and financial market movements and getting caught in the adolescent drama of mainstream media’s obsession with modern politics produces only negative results, including but not limited to the following: frustration, outrage, feelings of powerlessness, and a re-direction of time and energy that is more productively deployed in matters where we can make a difference for those we serve professionally.

Brexit was just the start of the Age of Consequences: a global economic daisy chain overshadowed by a shrill political farce. This is the reality of our current public discourse, at least in the mainstream media: Crisis du Jour + Hillary & Donald + Entertainment “News” = Squirrel!

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From the Crow’s Nest – April 2014 Edition

Greetings!

Welcome to the April 2014 edition of Views from the Crows Nest. A lot has transpired in the interval since our 2014 Annual Forecast Issue, and it appears that market action is now heating up again. Are you prepared to dance to “The European Shuffle?”

The last six months have been extraordinarily busy for our firm, with a focus on transitioning clients to the Portfolio Managers that we approved and hired in late 2013. While making major changes of any kind is never easy, early success (solid investment performance) following the transition has confirmed the prudence of our decision to hire new investment partners. I like it when the first steps taken together are in a positive direction.

It’s really quite remarkable how easily one can discern lower stress in hindsight. The proverbial frog that boils to death in a slowly warming pot cannot adequately perceive its own peril simply because the change is gradual, not unlike Jim Dines’ laser-focused expression, “Those inside the bubble cannot see the bubble.” Thank goodness for those who care enough to pop our own bubble when they see what we cannot or will not perceive.

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2014 Annual “Forecast”

Greetings!

Welcome to the 2014 Annual “Forecast” edition of Views from the Crows Nest. One of the many challenges with publishing a document that is intended to cover a one year period is that so much can change in a year.

Another challenge is choosing a theme, especially now when my creative faculties are wide open to receiving wisdom from countless sources. It’s not always this easy, so I’m deeply grateful when I am blessed with an almost embarrassing abundance of ideas, opportunities and new connections.

The most obvious challenge, though, is getting the actual forecasts themselves accurate enough to actually be useful and helpful to readers. The reality is that high-quality forecasts and advice are only as useful as they are timely, so forecasts that are too broad can actually be counter-productive.

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Views from the Crows Nest: December 2013 Issue

Welcome to this edition of Views from the Crowsnest. It’s been many months since I sat down to peck out my newsletter. We’ve been busy with important AND time-sensitive matters, as our Client Families always come first. It’s good to be back.

My wife and I love to watch comedy as we relax before bed, and one of my favorite stand-up routines from the Montreal Comedy Festival is a rant from a humorist whose character is a bombastic pub owner from GREAT BRITAIN! In answer to the question about why Brits and Canadians don’t have their own dream, like our neighbours with “The American Dream,” he answers quite poignantly, “It’s because we’re awake.”

The Renaissance Era in western civilization took place following many centuries of tight control of the scientific, creative and philosophical communities by the Catholic Church. The severity of this centralized control was a significant factor in the scope and force of the eventual bursting of the shackles…not unlike compressing a spring that cannot be permanently constrained.
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